Western UP : A political bellwether in Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha elections

Western UP


Western UP : Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha election: Data from previous Lok Sabha elections illustrates the BJP’s strong performance across Uttar Pradesh, largely due to its success 

Western UP : “West decides, what the east will do,” remarks a senior bureaucrat, savouring laia-channa (puffed rice with roasted gram), emphasising the critical role of western Uttar Pradesh in shaping the political fate of any party in the state.

This casual remark underscores the pivotal position of Western UP in influencing the state’s political landscape.

Data from previous Lok Sabha elections illustrates the BJP’s strong performance across Uttar Pradesh, largely due to its success in western UP.
“The momentum garnered by the BJP in the first phase historically plays a crucial role in their overall performance,” notes political analyst Manoj Bhadra. “This trend has persisted in past elections and is likely to remain a factor in the upcoming polls.”Western UP

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP swept all eight seats slated for the first phase of voting, contributing to its impressive tally of 71 seats, which rose to 73 in alliance with the Apna Dal. However, the 2019 elections saw a shift in the political landscape, with the BJP facing setbacks against the grand alliance of SP-RLD and BSP. Of the same eight seats, the BJP secured only three, marking a significant decline from its previous dominance.Western UP

This loss of momentum resulted in the BJP winning 62 seats overall, a decrease of nine from the 2014 elections, as SP and BSP made significant gains in Purvanchal.

“The SP-BSP alliance secured victory in five out of the eight seats contested in the first phase of the 2019 elections,” Bhadra highlights.Western UP

As the upcoming elections commence from the western part of the state, significant shifts in political dynamics since the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2022 assembly polls are anticipated to influence electoral outcomes. The BJP-RLD alliance faces scrutiny in this election, with the political stature of Jayant Chaudhary at stake. Union Minister Sanjiv Balyan’s endeavours to secure a hat-trick victory will also be closely monitored.Western UP

The western region, historically influenced by farmer and Jat leader Ajit Singh, finds itself in a new political landscape following Singh’s passing in 2021. The absence of his leadership presents both opportunities and challenges for parties traditionally aligned with him.

“The BJP’s decision to confer Bharat Ratna upon former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh proved strategic, prompting Jayant to realign with the saffron party,” Bhadra elucidates. “The electoral outcome will determine the wisdom of Jayant’s decision.”Western UP

In the previous elections, a grand alliance of SP, BSP, and RLD contested. Out of the eight seats in the first phase in 2019, SP contested four, BSP three, and RLD one. While BSP secured victories in all three of its contested seats, SP won two out of four, and RLD failed to secure any.Western UP

“In the 2024 elections, the BJP-RLD alliance is contesting seven seats, leaving only Bijnor for the RLD,” Bhadra observes. “Similarly, in the SP-Congress alliance, Saharanpur seat has been allocated to Congress, with the remaining seven seats held by SP.”Western UP


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